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All Insights arrow_forwardThe Free Meta Sweep Was Lying to You. I Took It Down.
If you ran a meta sweep on the free tier, the win rate it showed you was too low — about 8 points low on average, and in the worst case it called a coin-flip matchup a 1.5% disaster. The problem was the number of games it ran. Single matchups now run 10x deeper for everyone, at the same depth patrons get. The sweep is now Patreon T2, because I'd rather not ship it than ship it thin.
Battle Lab compared to Mobile Suit Arena Meta Monday!
As a sanity test, I compared Battle Lab's archetype ranking against the real win-rate ranking from 8 weeks of Meta Monday data (MSA), using Spearman rank correlation.
What each base is actually worth — ~21,000 simulated games across 3 meta decks
are bases worth their slots, or are you better off cutting them for more units and events? I took three meta decks and cut each base type on its own, holding the other 49 cards as fixed as I could, so you can see what each individual base is worth instead of just "more bases vs fewer." 100 games per matchup, same seed, and the same 5 meta opponents for every variant: two Amuro Ray / Gundam lists (one of them running Zaku Ⅱ), two different Gundam Lfrith builds, and a Marida Cruz / Kshatriya / Ban